สำหรับนักลงทุน ผู้ที่ต้องการเรียนรู้ การเริ่มต้นการวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิคใน Version ภาคภาษาอังกฤษ ก็ลองอ่านบทความนี้ได้ เลยครับ เพราะมีบทความ Introduction to Technical Analysis ซึ่งผมเป็นผู้เขียนเองให้กับ แมกกาซีน INVEST ในประเทศ Singapore โดย Concept ของ INVEST Magazine นั้น คือ "Invest with Knowledge"   หรือการลงทุนด้วยความรู้ เพราะการลงทุนคือสิ่งที่คุณต้องศึกษาครับ

ซึ่งในบทความก็จะพูดถึง Pattern (รูปแบบ) ,Greed and Fear (ความโลภและ ความกลัว) , Supply and Demand (อุปสงค์ และ อุปทาน)  และนอกจากนี้ ก็จะพูดถึง ประเภทของนักลงทุนแบบใด ที่เหมาะสมสำหรับการใช้เครื่องมือการวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค ในการตัดสินใจลงทุน  ความแตกต่างของการวิเคราะห์พื้นฐาน และการวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค , ทำไมเราถึงต้องศึกษาการวิเคราะห์กราฟ , รวมถึงประโยชน์จากการวิเคราะห์ทางเทคนิค

* หากท่านใดต้องการ Download บทความจากหน้า Magazine ก็ เลือก ที่นี่ครับ

Invest Magazine.pdf (307.20 KB 15.08.2006 10:50)

Introduction to Technical Analysis

 

            Technical analysis is the analytical method which uses mathematics, statistics, and probability theory to evaluate the relevant information and convert it to results. The good technical analysts not only have to be smart observers but also have to understand human psychology (how people think). They also have to remember the price movements at each given situation because “history can and does repeat itself”. This is where we consider the “pattern”. So, if you can control the feeling between “greed and fear” you can survive in this game.

 

Although challenging, Technical Analysis is not as hard as you might think. Because we have tools to formulate the changes from the Price at Open, Close, High, Low, Change, and Volume from each period to give us tools as “indicators”. The Indicator can help you to understand the “Supply and Demand” and also whether a stock or index is “Overbought or Oversold”. This information can be used as an indicator to predict what will happen in the near future. When a stock has no “Demand” the price will always go down because everybody will want to sell. The indicator may show a time of being “Oversold”. That means no person will want to sell anymore. Now is the time to buy. So, Technical Analysis can help you in timing when to buy and when to sell to make profit or to cut your loss. It can even help you to predict when it’s time to walk away from the market entirely.

 

What’s type of investor can do technical analysis?

 

            Many investors may confuse themselves as to which type of investment discipline is best for them to succeed in the Stock Market. Some investors believe in fundamental analysis and some believe in technical analysis. Both types have their pros and cons. For example, in fundamental analysis they believe in “intrinsic value” or the present value of a firm’s expected future net cash flows discounted by the required rate of return. But fundamental analysis fails to tell us when is the appropriate time to enter or exit the market. On the other hand technical analysis focuses on supply and demand of a stock or index at a given time to help predict the buying and selling signals to achieve maximum gain. It fails to analyze the underlying company’s fiscal health.

 

            We can see that both methods have their own advantages. The investor should know what type of discipline suits them. It should be based on their knowledge, experience, capability, capital size, liquidity needs, and holding period for investment. To understand more about asset allocation and style of investment, we can illustrate different types of investments in three different products:

 

             

1.      A Fashion product: they will have characteristics of high liquidity and wide price fluctuations. The price depends largely on supply and demand in the short term. These products may become obsolete over time. Such products include clothing, computers, communication equipment, etc.

2.      A Utility product: this is a product we use in normal daily life, sometimes called a consumer product. It has low margins and is purchased and sold in large quantities by wholesalers. The thing that we are concerned with here is liquidity. An example of this product is soap.

 

3.      A Unique product: this product has value for the person who understands the product well. Sometime, they will have no liquidity at all but investors are willing to hold it for its collectible value. The price is also dependent on the opinions of the buyer and seller. Examples include antiques, stamps, and artwork.

 

From the type of product above we can compare what type of investor we are:

 

1.      Fashion product: this investor must predict the needs of the market and be attuned to market situations; they should be a risk taker; make fast decisions because the market changes very quickly. As prices fluctuate, the investor can be a speculator and there is profit to be made.

2.      Utility product:  this type of investor may not spend as much time tracking the market as frequently as the fashion type. They focus on the liquidity of the stock so he focuses on the volume of the stock traded. We can conclude that this investor is more conservative than the Fashion product investor.

3.      Unique product: this investor will concentrate on the real value of the product and the can hold it for a long period of time. They may collect more and more of this product. They will sell if they can get their desired price. We call this type of investor a “value investor”.

 

            So from these comparisons the investor should have some concept in their minds as to what type of investor they are so they can manage their portfolios effectively.

 

What are the differences between fundamental and technical analysis?

 

            The differences are as follows:

 

Fundamental analysis seeks the “intrinsic value” of a stock.

-          If the intrinsic value is higher than the market value, it is “Cheap”

-          If the intrinsic value is lower than the market value it is “Expensive”

 

Technical analysis seeks the “supply and demand” levels of a stock

-          they concentrate on investor patterns.

-          they believe in Investor “Sentiment” ,”Psychology” and “Market situations”

 

Fundamental                                                 Technical

   “Intrinsic value”                                      “Supply and Demand”

    Growth rate (earnings, sales)                   Stock situation

    Balance sheet                                           Market situation

    Industry Performance                              Direction of industrial index

    Profit margin                                            People psychology

 

Fundamental Investor Behavior:

-          Long term holding period

-          Collecting

-          Risk management

 

Technical Investor Behavior

-          Both short term and long term holding periods

-          Buying and selling decisions follow the technical signs

-          Risk taker by nature