DJN-DJ CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Tha...

DJN-DJ CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Thai Interest Rate Cut Likely 1Q07
07:29 30Nov06 DJN-DJ CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Thai Interest Rate Cut Likely 1Q07 DJ CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Thai Interest Rate Cut Likely 1Q07 (This article was originally published Wednesday.) By Tom Fox Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES BANGKOK (Dow Jones)--The Bank of Thailand will probably shrug off pressure from a rising baht and wait until 2007 to lower interest rates, but if moderation in global oil prices continues, the first cut is likely to come early next year. The government bond market has priced in a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy-signal 14-day rate, but only a few economists believe it will happen at the next monetary policy committee meeting on Dec. 13. "Many exporters expect the central bank to respond to the baht"s strength by cutting interest rates, but the main focus of the central bank"s interest-rate policy is price stability. It"s not about the interest-rate spread," Standard Chartered senior economist Usara Wilaipich said. Besides, an interest rate cut would have only a brief effect on the baht, because its strength is driven by inflows into Thai stocks and bonds associated with broad dollar weakness, Usara said. The 14-day repurchase market target rate, at 5%, is already 25 basis points below the U.S. federal funds target. A moderate increase in the discount between onshore and offshore rates wouldn"t have a significant effect on the dollar trend, she said. On Wednesday, as the baht rose to a fresh eight-year high against the dollar, Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase told exporters they would have to adjust, as central bank intervention can do only so much. Tarisa has consistently identified the source of the baht"s strength as portfolio inflows related to broad dollar weakness, and discounted the effects of the baht trend on export growth and the broader economy. These comments indicate that her position on interest rates hasn"t changed since she said four weeks ago that economic growth is on an upward trend, and the central bank"s greatest concern was the risk of renewed global oil-price volatility due to geopolitical factors. The stronger baht does have substantial impact on certain exports, such as those from agriculture and labor-intensive industrial sectors, but overall exports are still growing quickly due to strong demand from regional trading partners. Economists in a survey by Dow Jones Newswires forecast on average that exports rose 20% in October from a year earlier - up from 14.5% in September - as the weight of baht strength took a back seat to global demand. The Bank of Thailand will issue October trade data at 0300 GMT Thursday. Thriving exports prompted the Ministry of Finance on Wednesday to raise its forecast for 2006 gross domestic product growth to 5% from 4.5% previously, indicating that growth won"t be a concern for the central bank, at least for its December meeting. GDP growth in 2007 is forecast at 4%-5% as recovery in domestic spending and investment will help offset a likely slowdown in exports, said Pannee Sathavarodom, head of the ministry"s Fiscal Policy Office. The Bank of Thailand"s latest forecasts are for 2006 growth of 4.5%-5%, and 2007 growth of 4.5%-5.5%. Finance Ministry, Most Economists Expect First Rate Cut In 2007 Pannee said falling inflation may allow the Bank of Thailand to cut its 14-day rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% some time next year. Most economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey forecast that the central bank would leave the 14-day target on hold Dec. 13, but follow with cuts of between 50 and 100 basis points in 2007. Only two of eight economists said a reduction in the 14-day rate could come as early as December, citing a significant easing in inflationary pressures. Pannee said headline inflation should ease to 2.1%-3.1% next year from a projection of around 4.5% this year. The Dow Jones Newswires survey forecast on average that November headline inflation will edge up to 3.3% year-on-year from 2.8% the previous month. But the consumer price index is expected to have fallen 0.3% from the previous month, after a rise of 0.4% in October. Pannee said the downward trend in inflation is due partly to lower oil prices and partly to the appreciation of the baht. The finance ministry"s new forecasts reflect expectations that the average value of the dollar this year will be between THB36.50 and THB37.50, down from a previous assumption of THB38.00. The dollar closed the Asian session Wednesday at THB36.115. Earlier in the session, the U.S. currency hit an eight-year low of THB36.05, tracking its losses against other major currencies. Citigroup forecasts a continued drop in the dollar to THB35.60 by the end of next year"s third quarter, but many economists are less bullish regarding the baht. And even Citigroup expects the baht to underperform regional currencies next year due to an easing in both export growth and portfolio inflows to the region. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Newswires survey forecasts third-quarter GDP data, due Monday from the National Economic & Social Development Board, at an average 4.1% from a year earlier, down from 4.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. But the decline has been anticipated by the central bank, and on-quarter GDP growth is expected to rise to a seasonally-adjusted 1.3% in the third quarter from 1.0% in the second quarter, due mainly to strong exports. The data therefore is unlikely to affect the central bank"s interest-rate policy decisions. Weakness in consumer spending and private investment in the third quarter were among factors depressing year-on-year growth, but confidence has begun to recover since a coup on Sept. 19 ousted the divisive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Political risks remain in the long term, as elections are due to be held in late 2007 after a new constitution is drafted. Meanwhile, street protests against Thaksin have been quelled and an interim government is expediting spending and proceeding with heavy investment in infrastructure. Forecasts for Bank of Thailand 14-Day Repo Target Rate: Cut On Initial Total Cuts Dec 13 Reduction In 2007 Research House Action Economics None 2007 25 bps Citibank None 1Q07 50 bps (by 3Q07) DBS None 1Q07 50 bps (by 3Q07) Kasikornbank None 2007 100 bps Phatra Securities None 1Q07 75-100 bps Standard Chartered None 2H07 50 bps UBS 25bps Dec06 or 1Q07 - UOB 25bps Dec06 100 bps (additional) Majority View Unchanged 1Q07 50-100 bps Current 14-Day Repo Target Is 5% Forecasts For Thai November CPI, Core Inflation: CPI CPI Core Core % Change % Change % Change % Change Research House On Year On Month On Year On Month Action Economics +3.0 -0.5 +1.8 +0.1 CNS 3.3 -0.2 1.8 0.0 DBS 3.6 - 1.9 - Phatra Securities 3.1 -0.4 1.7 0.0 Standard Chartered 3.1 -0.4 1.8 0.1 UOB 3.8 +0.2 1.9 0.2 Average (rounded) +3.3 -0.3 +1.8 +0.1 October CPI: up 2.8% on year, +0.4% on month October Core CPI: up 1.8% on year, unchanged on month Forecasts For Thai GDP Growth: Adjusted 2006 GDP 2007 GDP 3Q06 GDP 3Q06 GDP Research House % Change % Change % On Yr % On Qtr Action Economics +4.7 +4.5 +3.8 +1.0 Citigroup 4.3 4.3 - - Capital Nomura 4.7 4.8 4.3 1.6 Kasikornbank 4.7-4.9 4.0-5.0 4.0-4.3 Phatra Securities 4.5 4.4 3.9 - Standard Chartered 4.1 5.2 - - UOB 4.5 4.5 4.1 1.4 === === === === Average (rounded) +4.5 +4.6 +4.1 +1.3 2005 GDP rose 4.5%. In the second quarter of 2006 GDP grew 4.9% on year and a seasonally adjusted 1.0% on quarter. -By Tom Fox, Dow Jones Newswires; 66 2266 0744; tom.fox@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires
ผู้ตั้งกระทู้ dr :: วันที่ลงประกาศ 2006-11-30 11:46:54 IP : 61.47.108.252

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ความคิดเห็นที่ 1 (457574)

มีการประเมิณออกมา ว่า ปีหน้าดอกเบี้ย RP 14 วันจะมีการปรับลดลง 0.25-1.00% เลยทีเดียวครับ ซึ่งมี Poll ออกมาจาก เหล่าสถาบันการเงินต่างๆ เนื่องจากสัญญาณ จากดัชนีผู้บริโภคมีการปรับตัวลดลง และเงินเฟ้อเริ่มชะลอตัว

โดยการปรับลดอัตราดอกเบี้ย จะเป็นกลไกส่วนหนึ่งที่ช่วยชะลอ การแข็งค่าของค่าเงินบาท ไม่ให้แข็งค่าเร็วเกินไป เพราะจะส่งผลกระทบต่อผู้ที่ส่งสินค้าออก ซึ่งบางค่ายมีการวิเคราะห์ถึงขนาดว่า อาจจะมีการลดดอกเบี้ย ตั้งแต่การประชุมของ คณะกรรมการการเงินในวันที่ 13 ธันวาคมนี้ เลยทีเดียว แต่เสียงส่วนใหญ่เชื่อว่าจะยังคงปรับลงในปีหน้า

แต่อย่างไรก็ดีการปรับลดอัตราดอกเบี้ย จะมีผลให้ กองทุนตราสารหนี้ หรือตั่วเงิน พันธบัตร มีโอกาสปรับ NAV สูงขึ้น นั้นหมายถึงราคาสูงขึ้น เนื่องจากผลตอบแทนของตราสารหนี้ที่ออกใหม่ในปีหน้าจะปรับลดลงด้วย ดังนั้นตราสารหนี้เดิมที่มีอยู่ในตลาดที่สัญญาว่าจะให้ดอกเบี้ยที่สูงอยู่ ก็จะมีราคาปรับชึ้น เมื่อดอกเบี้ยลงทันที ดังนั้น ใครอยากจะโยกเงินบางส่วนซื้อตั๋วเงิน 1ปี หรือ พันธบัตร ตราสารหนี้ต่างๆ ช่วงนี้ น่าที่จะเป็นจังหวะที่ดี นะครับ

ผู้แสดงความคิดเห็น dr ตอบโดยสมาชิก

วันที่ตอบ 2006-11-30 14:19:59 IP : 61.47.108.252

ความคิดเห็นที่ 2 (457930)
ขอบคุณครับ
ผู้แสดงความคิดเห็น pat วันที่ตอบ 2006-11-30 23:56:00 IP : 222.123.76.11

ความคิดเห็นที่ 3 (713177)

ผู้แสดงความคิดเห็น _ำ^๖ฝขถ จ วันที่ตอบ 2007-07-18 14:55:33 IP : 203.146.127.159

ความคิดเห็นที่ 4 (748550)

ผู้แสดงความคิดเห็น _ำ^๖ฝขถ จ วันที่ตอบ 2007-08-24 17:13:41 IP : 203.146.127.179

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